Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025

Executive Summary

Vietnam's economy continues to demonstrate robust growth momentum in 2025, with GDP expanding 7.96% in Q2. The first half of 2025 recorded the highest mid-year performance since 2011, driven by services and manufacturing sectors amidst external challenges like global trade tensions and US tariffs.

Key Economic Indicators 2025

1. GDP Growth Performance

Actual Results:

  • Q1 2025: 6.9% YoY
  • Q2 2025: 7.96% YoY
  • First Half 2025: 7.52%

Forecasts:

  • World Bank: 5.8%
  • ADB: 6.6% (down from 6.3%)
  • IMF: 5.2%
  • Government Target: 8.3–8.5%

2. Inflation Rate

2025 Trends:

  • May: 3.24%
  • June: 3.57% (highest since start of year)

Forecasts: IMF 2.9%, ADB 4.0%. Inflation remains within safe, manageable range.

3. Unemployment Rate

Q1 2025: 2.20%, down from 2.22% Q4 2024. Indicates stable labor market.

4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

First 5 months: Registered Capital: $18.4B (+51% YoY), Disbursed: $8.9B

Half-year total: US$21.51B (+32.6%)

Visual Data

Sectoral Analysis

Primary Growth Drivers

  • Services Sector: Major contributor
  • Manufacturing Sector: Recovering and developing
  • Export Industries: Backbone of the economy
  • Banking Sector: Projected 17% earnings growth in 2025

Retail Performance

Q1 2025 retail sales: 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83B), +9.9% YoY.

Data Table

Quarter Retail Sales (VND) YoY Growth
Q1 2025 1.708 quadrillion 9.9%

Challenges and Risk Factors

  • Global Trade Tensions impact exports
  • US Tariff Policies pressure exporters
  • Geopolitical Instability => increased business uncertainty
  • Overdependence on FDI => risks of inflation & overreliance
  • Need for macroeconomic stability, avoiding public debt surges

Historical Comparison

GDP growth rates (YoY) from 2020 to 2025:

  • 2020: 3.21%
  • 2021: 4.85%
  • 2022: 5.42%
  • 2023: 3.46%
  • 2024: 7.1%
  • 2025 forecast: ~7.52%

Economic Outlook & Projections

Vietnam’s economy started strong in 2025 with 6.9% Q1 growth, but faces global uncertainty ahead. The target is 8.3–8.5%, though challenges exist. Fundamental supports include:

  • Robust FDI inflows
  • Low unemployment
  • Controlled inflation
  • Export competitiveness
  • Parliamentary support raising growth targets

Risk Mitigation

The government aims to diversify markets, boost domestic demand, and strengthen resilience to global shocks through fiscal and policy measures.

Sources and Citations